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Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Increasing frequency of secondary dengue infections in sequential outbreaks (2016-2024). Clinical impact and diagnostic challenges.

Espindola, S. L.; Pereson, M. J.; Lema, J. M.; Kachuk, A.; Carballo, G.; Aloisi, N.; Badano, M. N.; Miretti, M.; Di Lello, F. A.; Bare, P. C.

2026-06-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354405 medRxiv
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Successive dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks can progressively reshape population immunity influencing disease expression and diagnostic performance. Objectives The aim was to evaluate the impact of secondary infections across sequential outbreaks on clinical severity, serotype dynamics and diagnostic concordance. Methods This retrospective study analyzed 976 febrile-stage samples from three sequential outbreaks in Misiones, Argentina. For serotyping and clinical analyses, 869 viremic samples confirmed by at least one direct method were included (2016: n=512; 2019: n=148; 2024: n=209). Additionally, 318 samples, including 107 non-viremic cases, were used to compare NS1 rapid diagnostic tests (NS1 Ag) and RT-PCR. Viral serotyping and clinical and laboratory markers of disease severity were evaluated. Results Secondary infections increased from 31.05% (2016) to 43.24% (2019) and 53.87% (2024) (p<0.0010). Serotype distribution shifted from DENV-1 predominance in 2016 (95.12%), DENV-1/DENV-4 co-circulation in 2019 (60.71%/39.29%), and DENV-2 predominance in 2024 (97.60%). Secondary infections were associated with more severe disease manifestations, particularly in 2024, with higher hematocrit (p=0.0120) and hemoglobin (p=0.0080), lower white blood cells (p=0.020) and platelet counts (p=0.0030), and elevated AST (p=0.0007) and ALT (p=0.0130). Concordance between NS1 Ag and RT-PCR was lower in secondary infections (k=0.457 vs k=0.759, p=0.0013). Conclusions The rising frequency of secondary infections may affect both clinical severity and diagnostic performance during outbreaks. The clinical impact was more evident in 2024, likely associated with the introduction of a new serotype. These findings highlight the need for optimized surveillance and diagnostic strategies to improve case detection and patient management during epidemics.

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Suspected rabies exposure among animal-bite human cases in Busia district, Uganda: Prevalence, associated factors and delayed post-exposure care-seeking. A cross-sectional study

Wagaba, D.; Nabukenya, I.; Kizza, J.; Unith, H.; Kanyange, A.; Turyahabwe, C.; Kibuuka, H.; Mugisha, D.; Ogola, S. P.; Nabidda, S.; Kisakye, L. K.; Kalyango, J.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354408 medRxiv
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Background Rabies is a zoonotic neglected public health problem associated with animal bites, especially domestic carnivores claiming 59,000 deaths annually predominantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia. There is a high risk of exposure among rural communities endemic with animal rabies where adoption of prevention strategies is minimal. This study determined the prevalence of suspected rabies exposure, associated factors, and delayed post-exposure care-seeking among animal-bite human cases in Busia district, Uganda. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that involved 332 consecutively sampled animal bite human cases that occurred within the period 2023 to 2024. Data for the bite cases from records were collected using a data abstraction tool. In addition, interviewer-administered semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data on sociodemographic, animal-related and environmental characteristics. Approximate bite locations were collected using Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates via Kobo collect. Analysis was carried out in STATA 17 using mixed effects modified Poisson regression for factors associated with suspected rabies exposure. Results: The median age of the bite cases was 18 (IQR: 9-36) with the male gender predominantly affected. The prevalence of suspected rabies exposure was 53.6% (95% Confidence interval - CI: 46.8-60.3). Factors associated were urban versus (vs) rural residence (adjusted prevalence ratio-aPR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.08), being bitten by a stray animal (aPR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.22-1.35) and wild animal (aPR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.14-1.30) vs domestic animal, vaccination status of the biting animal i.e. vaccinated vs unvaccinated (aPR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69-0.85), provoked vs unprovoked bites (aPR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.86), and distance to nearest river ([&ge;]5km) vs <5km (aPR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-0.99). The prevalence of delayed post-exposure seeking was 23.0% (95% CI: 16.5-31.1) among the suspected rabies exposures. Conclusion: The study reveals a high prevalence of suspected rabies exposure. Factors associated are multidimensional i.e. are of human, animal and environmental origin. The one health paradigm should be emphasized during routine surveillance of rabies-related cases. The study observed that 1 in 5 bite cases delayed to seek care post bite exposure. We recommend collaborations between sectors, routine vaccination and awareness campaigns, and monitoring of wild carnivore populations and environmental dynamics in rabies-related surveillance.

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Hantavirus Disease in Uruguay: Trends and Mortality Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

criscuolo, z.; Blanco, L.; Ferrara, F.; Ciaccio, K.; Gomez Carassale, L.; Gonzalez Reyes, M.; Machado Rivero, B.; Sosa Dias, F.; Facal Castro, J. A.

2026-06-11 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355375 medRxiv
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Introduction: Hantavirus disease is an emerging and potentially severe zoonosis of global distribution. In Uruguay, it is transmitted by rodents inhabiting peridomestic, suburban, and rural areas. Global incidence is estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 cases per year, with up to 300 annual cases in the Americas. Since 1997, Uruguay's Ministry of Public Health (MPH) has monitored Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), the most common clinical presentation in the region. By 2019, a total of 271 cases had been identified in the country, with an estimated mortality rate of nearly 50%. Objectives: To describe the clinical, epidemiological, and occupational characteristics of patients with Hantavirus disease in Uruguay during the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) periods. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted, including all serologically confirmed cases of Hantavirus infection reported to the MPH between 2018 and 2021. Clinical and demographic data were extracted from the mandatory reporting form for zoonotic diseases. Incidence and case fatality rates were calculated, and factors associated with fatal outcomes were analyzed. Results: A total of 58 confirmed cases were identified between 2018 and 2021. Most patients were male (62%), with a mean age of 36.5 years (SD 16). A decline in incidence was observed during 2020-2021, with no significant change in case fatality. Direct rodent exposure was the most frequently associated risk factor. Montevideo and Canelones were the most affected departments. Renal and pulmonary involvement were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusion: Hantavirus remains a relevant public health concern in Uruguay. Although a decrease in incidence was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic years, case fatality rates remained high. The findings underscore the need for sustained surveillance and early recognition, particularly in urbanizing regions.

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Cost-Effective Threshold Price for Alternative Infant and Neonatal Rotavirus Vaccines: A Dual-Country Evaluation

Li, X.; Asare, E. O.; Kwon, J.; Wenger, C. G.; Armah, G. E.; Cunliffe, N. A.; Jere, K. C.; Bilcke, J.; Beutels, P.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-05-15 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353029 medRxiv
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Suboptimal rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) highlights the need for next-generation vaccines, such as the neonatal RV3-BB vaccine. However, there is uncertainty in the duration of protection and future price of vaccines in development. We aim to identify the conditions under which switching to RV3-BB is optimal in Malawi and Ghana, where the current immunization programs use 2-dose Rotarix and 3-dose Rotavac schedules, respectively. A full incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a validated transmission model calibrated to country-specific rotavirus data. Over 2025-2034, introducing RV3-BB resulted in the largest rotavirus-related burden reduction compared with the current country-specific programs. At moderate willingness-to-pay (~0.5 time Gross Domestic Product per capita), RV3-BB was preferred over Rotavac if price per dose was <$1.2 in Malawi and <$2.5 in Ghana, and/or if the average duration of protection exceeded 40 weeks in Malawi. The RV3-BB vaccine is likely to be cost-effective in Malawi and Ghana, as well as other LMICs, based on expected pricing and duration of protection.

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A Study To Analyse The Demographics And Injury Pattern Of Dog Bite Cases In Emergency Department Of A Tertiary Care Hospital In Chennai

Vinoth, D.; kumar, A.; jenifer, E.

2026-05-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353645 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background Dog bite injuries are a major yet largely preventable public health concern worldwide. They contribute significantly to morbidity, healthcare burden, and economic costs, particularly in emergency department .The present study aims to analyse the demographics and injury pattern of dog bite cases presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital in Chennai. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study with dog bite injured participants attending the Causality from November 2025 to April 2026 data was collected using a structured tool including details on demographics (Age, Gender, Education) injury related characteristics , history of pure bite site of dog bite injury type, WHO bitten criteria and information to management etc. We used here non probability statistical analysis and age specific dog bite cases and independent variables were analysed using SPSS (2.0 version). Result A total of Two hundred sixteen dog bite cases were analysed in the study by period of 6 months The majority of participants were 172 (79.6%) were above 18 years and 44 (20.4) were below 18 year, 130 (60%) from rural areas and 86 (39.8%) from urban areas, 136 (63.0%) of Victims presented within a day of the bite, 61( 28.2) next day and 19 (8.8%) in after one week 66 (30.6) were bitten by own dog and 150(69.4%)were bitten by neighbour / friended dog. 124(57.4) were bitten by stray dog 92(42.6) bitten by pet dog. 117(54.2) were vaccinated dog and 99(45.8%) were not vaccinated .110(50.9) victims were injured by laceration. 26(12.0%) were injured by puncture wound.46(21.3) were injured by abrasion 10(4.6) were injured by avulsion 15(6.9%) were injured by crush injury. 156(72.2%) were had minor wound.45(20.8%) victims had moderate wound and 15(6.9%) victims had severe wound. 112(51.9%) victims were taken antibiotics.104(48%) were not taken antibiotics. 185(85.6%) victims received tetanus toxoid, 31(14.4%) were not received tetanus toxoid. CONCLUSION There is a high burden of dog bite injuries from stray dogs in India. Despite early hospital presentation in many cases gaps in first aid practices and rabies post exposure prophylaxis were evident and highlighting inadequate awareness. Key words Rabies immunoglobulin, Dog bite, WHO criteria, Anti rabies vaccine, stray Dog, wound

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Dengue spatiotemporal patterns in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2014-2023: regional epidemic forces dominate over the environmental impact of the Brumadinho dam collapse

Fernandes, G. d. R.; Vaz, A. B. M.; Fonseca, P. L. C.; Oliveira, W. K.; Aguiar, E. R. G. R.; Lopes, B. C.; Mota-Filho, C. R.; Castro, M. L. P.; Starling, C. E.

2026-05-26 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353615 medRxiv
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Background: Dengue is a major public health problem in Brazil, and Minas Gerais is one of the states with the highest burden. In January 2019, the Brumadinho dam collapse released about 12 million cubic meters of iron ore tailings into the Paraopeba River basin, causing environmental disturbance that could plausibly affect vector habitats and dengue transmission. We evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Minas Gerais from 2014 to 2023 and tested whether the disaster was associated with changes in affected municipalities. Methods: We performed an ecological spatiotemporal analysis using dengue notifications from SINAN for all municipalities in Minas Gerais (2014-2023). Municipalities were classified as Paraopeba basin, regional controls, or state controls. Temporal similarity was assessed using Pearson correlation-based hierarchical clustering and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). Sources of variation were examined with PERMANOVA and principal component analysis (PCA). A linear mixed-effects model with municipality as a random effect was used to test changes after 2019, with pre/post contrasts estimated from marginal means. Results: Dengue showed strong temporal synchrony across the state, with major epidemic peaks in 2015-2016, 2019, and 2023. Health region explained 31.5% of the variation in temporal incidence profiles (p = 0.001), whereas Paraopeba basin status explained no significant variation (p = 0.998). No temporal cluster was enriched for municipalities in the Paraopeba basin. PCA identified 2023, 2019, and 2016 as the main years driving variability. In the mixed model, year was significant (p < 0.001), but Paraopeba basin status and its interaction with time were not. Incidence increased significantly after 2019 in non-exposed municipalities (p < 0.001), but not in basin municipalities (p = 0.088). Conclusions: Dengue dynamics in Minas Gerais were driven mainly by regional and state-wide epidemic processes, with no significant independent effect of the Brumadinho dam collapse on notified dengue patterns.

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Socio-geographic factors associated with Lyme disease in children

Wychgram, C.; Geanacopoulos, A. T.; Rebman, A. W.; Chapman, L. L.; Green, R. S.; Neville, D. N.; Thompson, A. D.; Ladell, M. M.; Kharbanda, A. B.; Mandl, K. D.; Curriero, F. C.; Aucott, J. N.; Nigrovic, L. E.; Pedi Lyme Net,

2026-05-20 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353361 medRxiv
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Objective: Lyme disease diagnosis in children is challenging due to atypical presentations and testing limitations. We sought to evaluate the association between Lyme disease and socio-geographic risk factors in children. Materials and methods: We enrolled children undergoing evaluation for acute Lyme disease at one of eight Pedi Lyme Net pediatric emergency departments located in high Lyme disease incidence states over a ten-year period (2015-2024). We defined a case of Lyme disease with an erythema migrans (EM) lesion or a positive two-tier serology result in a child with signs and/or symptoms of acute disease. We linked each childs primary residential county to the following factors: urban-rural residence, socioeconomic status, population-level disease incidence, wildland-urban interface, and "Lyme disease" Google searches. We performed a multi-level logistic regression analysis to evaluate associations between Lyme disease and county factors after adjusting for individual demographics. Results: Among 5,529 children enrolled, 1,396 (25.2%) had Lyme disease: 101 (7.2%) with early-localized disease, 584 (41.8%) with early-disseminated disease, and 711 (50.9%) with late-disseminated disease. Rural residence (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.9), higher socioeconomic advantage (aOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.4), more "Lyme disease" Google searches (aOR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2), and higher wildland urban interface (aOR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.4) were independently associated with Lyme disease. Conclusion: Incorporating socio-geographic factors alongside clinical data may augment diagnostic risk assessment in children with suspected Lyme disease. However, these factors should be incorporated carefully to ensure clinical assessments are not based on a childs geographic location alone.

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Why epidemic risk at the 2026 World Cup may not be what you think

Lessler, J.; Smith, C. P.; Das, P.; Sykes, A. L.; Urbinati, A.; Geith, K.; Powers, K. A.; Davis, J. T.; Kern-Allely, S. C.; Vega Yon, G. G.; Lofgren, E. T.; Pearson, C. A. B.; Vespignani, A.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354384 medRxiv
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Background: The 2026 FIFA World Cup may bring over one million visitors to North America from around the globe to participate in mass gathering events. The nature of the event and recent news have raised concerns for some that the tournament could lead to infectious disease outbreaks or fuel existing epidemics. Objective: To systematically assess the infectious disease threat posed to the United States by the tournament. Design: A multi-institutional team evaluated pathogen-specific risk across three dimensions: importation, outbreak potential, and impact to identify a priority pathogen list. A systematic screening protocol ensured common criteria and that pathogen information was collected when necessary to inform inclusion. Results: Increased risk from the World Cup is near zero for 63 of 77 evaluated pathogens. Pathogens were predominantly excluded as threats due to low excess importation risk and low outbreak potential if introduced. The remaining priority pathogens fall into five categories: (a) mosquito borne pathogens with the potential for sustained transmission in some host cities, (b) seasonal respiratory viruses, (c) chronic infections with high prevalence outside the United States, (d) pathogens present in the United States with likely increased transmission at World Cup activities, and (e) high-consequence infectious threats. Limitations: Data availability is variable across diseases. Impact calculations may not reflect actual costs to host cities. Disease incidence in World Cup travelers may differ from national incidence rates. Conclusion: While infectious disease outbreaks at the 2026 FIFA World Cup are possible, in an already highly connected world where large gatherings are frequent, the elevated risk from the tournament is not as extreme as it first may seem.

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Malaria Risk among Internally Mobile Individuals and Heterogeneous Mobility Patterns in Two Hypoendemic Communities: Implications for Malaria Elimination in the Peruvian Amazon.

Ramirez Saavedra, R.; Acosta, C.; Rodriguez, P.; Cabrera-Sosa, L.; Escalente, A. A.; Vinetz, J. M.; Torres, K.; Gamboa, D.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355294 medRxiv
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Background: Human mobility is increasingly recognized as a key factor influencing malaria transmission dynamics, particularly in low-transmission settings approaching elimination. This study aimed to assess mobility patterns and their association with malaria risk in two hypoendemic communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Method: A longitudinal study was conducted in the communities of Libertad and Urcomirano (Mazan River basin). Monthly population screenings were combined with weekly active and passive case detection. A total of 678 individuals were enrolled. Mobility patterns were assessed through structured questionnaires, and social network analysis was used to characterize travel connections. Log-binomial regression analysis was applied to identify risk factors associated with malaria infection. Result: Internally, mobile individuals in Libertad showed a higher malaria incidence (>32.47 cases per 1,000 person-months) than those in Urcomirano (<10.15 cases per 1,000 person-months). Travel networks were mainly connected to Mazan district and Iquitos city, followed by local streams such as Armas and Arahuana. Mobility was primarily driven by family, administrative and occupational activities. Male sex (PR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.37 - 3.37) and age [&ge;]15 years (PR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.24 - 3.19) were significantly associated with malaria infection (p-value < 0.05). Conclusion: Internally mobile populations represent a key high-risk group sustaining malaria transmission in hypoendemic settings. Targeted interventions focusing on mobile individuals should be integrated into malaria elimination strategies in the Peruvian Amazon and similar endemic regions.

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Estimating cost of integrating HBV, HCV, and HIV screening at ANC using Time-Driven Activity Based Costing Approach; A providers perspective comparing Intervention and standard of care at lower health facilities in West Nile sub region, Uganda

Alege, J. B.; Oyore, J. P.; Nanyonga, R. C.; Ssebagereka, A.; Ssempala, R.; Musoke, P.; Orago, A. S. S.

2026-05-26 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353753 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective To Estimate cost of integrating HBV, HCV, and HIV screening at Antenatal using Time-Driven Activity Based Costing (TDACB) Approach; A providers perspective comparing Intervention and standard of care at lower health facilities in West Nile sub region, Uganda Methods Design The Time Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) approach was used to capture resource use and costs associated with delivering integrated HBV, HCV, and HIV screening among pregnant women. This study compared screening uptake among study participants in the intervention, and control group respectively. Five lower health facilities in Koboko and Maracha districts respectively in West Nile region of Uganda. A total of 1,338 study participants wo were pregnant mothers in first ANC, first trimester at the selected 10 facilities were enrolled in this study. Data were abstracted, and also collected on; Personnel/staff time; facility space utilisation; and Medical and non-medical equipment. Total cost per patient visit=Staff time costs+Space cost Equipment cost. Outcome Measure was the estimated provider-perspective costs of delivering integrated screening for HBV, HCV and HIV, using Integrated Care Model by comparing intervention and control groups. Results Staff CCRs demonstrated considerable variability across cadres and facilities, with an overall mean of USD 0.492 per minute (Range: USD 0.167 - 1.318). Laboratory technicians exhibited the highest mean CCR at USD 0.767 per minute for personnel CCRs per patient visit. the mean lowest CPP visit was noted for HBV in the intervention arm (USD 11.43) while HIV test was the lowest in the control arm (USD 0.43). HCV test had the highest cost in the control arm (USD 0.52). The CPP visit for positive clients were generally higher than those that were negative. Equipment CCRs were minimal and highly consistent across facilities, with a mean of USD 0.00069 per minute ({+/-}0.0002). HIV/Syphilis combo was the costliest test kits at USD 3.14 per test kit followed by viral hepatitis C test kit and Hep B at USD 2.47 and USD 0.28 respectively. Facility space CCRs exhibited moderate variation across facilities, ranging from USD 0.01593 to USD 0.03474 per minute. Overall mean CCR for the space for delivering HBV, HCV or HIV testing was USD 0.0256 (0.0066). Conclusion; Overall, the integration of screening resulted in: Cost efficiencies where the same staff and space were used for multiple simultaneous tests, reduced marginal costs for HIV tests due to larger procurement volumes, and higher marginal cost additions for HBV and HCV due to pricier reagents.

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Optimizing Trastuzumab Duration: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Five Regimens for HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in Kenya

Mandaliya, P.; Barasa, E.; Aywak, D.; Okalebo, F.

2026-05-15 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353063 medRxiv
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Breast cancer was the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women worldwide in 2022. In Kenya, more than a quarter of breast cancer patients have the aggressive Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 positive subtype. Trastuzumab is recommended for its treatment, but high costs have limited access. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness and affordability of trastuzumab-based regimens to inform their adoption and use in Kenya. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from the healthcare payer perspective over a lifetime horizon. Five trastuzumab-based regimens of varying durations (9-week, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month, and 24-month) were compared with chemotherapy alone. Direct medical costs were estimated using a bottom-up micro-ingredient approach. All costs were reported in 2022 USD. A cohort Markov state-transition model with a monthly cycle length was used to estimate the costs and outcomes for an open hypothetical cohort. Scenario, deterministic sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. A budget impact analysis estimated the financial implications of each regimen. The 9-week regimen had the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 3,230 per QALY, while the remaining regimens had ICERs ranging from USD 4,046 to 9,846 per QALY. The findings were most sensitive to the price and quantity utilized per cycle of trastuzumab. A reimbursement cap of KES 40,000 per cycle reduced ICERs by up to 61%. Over five years, the 9-week regimen would account for 1.2% of the projected insurers budget, whereas the current recommended 12-month regimen would consume 2.82%. Although none of the regimens were cost-effective at Kenyas WTP threshold (USD 1054.80), the 9-week regimen may still be considered by policymakers given its greater affordability. Further cost reductions can be achieved through negotiating lower drug prices, improving access to biosimilars, and implementing vial sharing.

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Willingness to Pay for Primary Health Care Services and Associated Factors in Eastern Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo

MUTOMBO MUNYANGAMA, B.; CIMUANGA-MUKANYA, A.; LUTUMBA, P.

2026-05-24 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353764 medRxiv
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Background In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), health care financing relies heavily on out-of-pocket payments, limiting access to essential services. In a context of declining external funding and ongoing efforts toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC), understanding households willingness to pay (WTP) for health care is critical for designing sustainable financing strategies. This study aimed to assess WTP for primary health care services and identify its associated factors in Eastern Kasai Province. Methods A cross-sectional study based on the contingent valuation method was conducted from 10 to 30 July 2025 among 633 randomly selected households using a multistage probabilistic sampling approach. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews using KoboToolBox. WTP was assessed using a stated preference approach. Logistic regression analyses using R 4.5.0 were performed to identify factors associated with WTP at a significance level of p < 0.05. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were reported. Results Overall, 70% of household heads reported willingness to pay for their own health care, and 73% for other household members. WTP decreased significantly as the cost of services increased, dropping from 95.5% for free care to 6.3% at the highest cost levels (above CDF 230,000). Poor perceived quality of care was a consistent reason for refusal, alongside financial constraints such as low income and indebtedness. Multivariable analysis showed that having a professional activity (OR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2-3.0; p = 0.006), residence in rural areas (OR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3-3.7; p = 0.008), and higher household income (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.2-4.0; p = 0.011) were significantly associated with WTP. Despite relatively low absolute health care costs, the majority of households perceived them as high. Conclusion Willingness to pay for health care services in Eastern Kasai is moderate but highly sensitive to cost and strongly influenced by socioeconomic conditions and perceived quality of care. These findings underscore the need to strengthen financial protection mechanisms, particularly prepayment and risk-pooling systems, while improving service quality to enhance health care utilization and progress toward UHC in the DRC.

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SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Status and MIS-C Incidence: A Systematic Review

Katherine Carroll, K.; Yang, H.; Mastrogiannis, A.; Rojas, K.; Cervia, J. S.

2026-05-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353349 medRxiv
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Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare but serious condition associated with pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection. While COVID-19 vaccines prevent infection and reduce severity, less conclusive evidence exists regarding their role in preventing MIS-C during breakthrough infections. This systematic review assessed the impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on MIS-C risk during breakthrough infection. Cross-sectional studies, surveillance studies, and cohort studies were included. Of the 944 studies identified, 6 were included. A significant protective effect was seen in patients who received two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination after exclusion of a biased sample (d= 0.71 [95% CI 0.07 to 1.35; p=0.03]). A trend towards a protective effect was seen after one dose of vaccination, but this effect was not statistically significant. Current literature supports a protective effect of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against development of MIS-C in breakthrough COVID-19. The evidence supports clinician advocacy for continued vaccination of children against SARS-CoV-2.

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Translation and Cross-cultural Validation of Leprosy Case Detection Delay Questionnaire Among Persons Affected by Leprosy in Southeast Nigeria

Eze, C. C.; Murphy-Okpala, N. N.; Ekeke, N.; Nwafor, C.; Egbule, D.; Njoku, M.; Ezeakile, O.; Meka, A.; Iyama, F. S.; Ogbuefi, E.; Ugwu, O.; Solomon, M.; Adesigbin, C.; Chukwu, J.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355058 medRxiv
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Introduction Reducing delays in leprosy case detection is essential for achieving global leprosy targets. Accurate measurement of these delays and their determinants relies largely on patient-reported data, as routine health records are often inadequate. The leprosy case detection delay (CDD) questionnaire, developed under the Post Exposure Prophylaxis for Leprosy (PEP4LEP) project, has been validated in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Indonesia. However, it has not been adapted or validated for Nigeria or any major Nigerian indigenous language. This study aimed to culturally adapt and validate the CDD questionnaire for Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria. Methodology/Principal Findings The CDD questionnaire underwent a standardized cross-cultural adaptation process. Content validity was assessed using item- and scale-level content validity indices, while construct validity was evaluated through hypothesis testing. Reproducibility was assessed using test-retest and inter-rater reliability; agreement using the Bland-Altman method and the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test; reliability using Spearmans rank correlation coefficient and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC); and internal consistency using Cronbachs alpha. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews with persons affected by leprosy at two time points separated by at least two weeks. Participants (n=100) had a mean age of 45.1 years (SD=18.7). Mean CDD was 77.2 months at baseline and 77.9 months at retest. The instrument demonstrated excellent content validity (I-CVI/S-CVI: 0.90-1.00), good internal consistency (Cronbachs =0.77), and excellent test-retest reliability (ICC=0.996, 95% CI: 0.994-0.997). Test and retest measurements were highly correlated ({rho}=0.985, p<0.001), with no evidence of systematic change over time (p=0.864). Seventy-two percent of participants reported identical CDD values across assessments. All items from the original English version were retained without modification. Conclusion/Significance The Igbo version of the CDD questionnaire demonstrated good validity and reliability and is suitable for assessing leprosy case detection delay among Igbo-speaking populations in Nigeria

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Temporal Changes in Immunization Information Systems Across U.S. States and Jurisdictions, 2000-2024

Chen, T.; Watanabe, M.; Callaghan, T.; Shioda, K.

2026-06-02 health policy 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354476 medRxiv
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Background: Statewide immunization data are essential for monitoring vaccination trends and evaluating immunization program impact. In the United States, Immunization Information Systems (IIS) were established in the early 1990s to collect these data; however, operational, legal, and procedural details vary across states and over time. This study summarized differences in IIS characteristics, such as legal requirements and reporting procedures, across U.S. states and jurisdictions over time. Methods: We analyzed survey data from previous work in 2000 and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2012, 2018, and 2024. Our review focused on legislation and reporting requirements for immunization registries across 50 states and 14 jurisdictions, including U.S. territories and Freely Associated States. Results: Between 2000 and 2024, legal frameworks and reporting practices for immunization registries expanded across U.S. states and jurisdictions. The number of states with laws or administrative rules authorizing immunization registries increased from 24 states in 2000 to all 50 states, the District of Columbia, five metropolitan areas, five U.S. territories, and three Freely Associated States in 2024. Over the same period, reporting requirements also became more widespread. The number of states and jurisdictions mandating providers to report immunization records increased from 12 in 2000 to 54 in 2024. Consent policies also changed over time. By 2024, most states and jurisdictions had adopted implicit consent for reporting children's immunization records (41; 64%), while a smaller proportion required explicit parental consent (7; 11%) or implemented mandatory reporting without consent (14; 22%). Discussion: IIS infrastructure and reporting requirements have expanded across U.S. states and jurisdictions over the past two decades, while heterogeneity in consent policies and reporting practices persists. These temporal changes may need to be considered when interpreting IIS data, particularly in longitudinal and cross-jurisdictional analyses.

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Estimating tuberculosis-related patient costs in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Yoon, I.; Govender, I.; Khan, P. Y.; Sithole, M.; McCreesh, N.; Grant, A. D.; Sweeney, S.

2026-05-20 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353472 medRxiv
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Summary- In a cross-sectional study, we calculated direct and indirect costs incurred by people prior to starting tuberculosis (TB) treatment in primary healthcare facilities in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We related the total costs to patient income to explore the economic impact of TB care-seeking and contribute to the literature by exploring differences between those with and without TB symptoms. Background- Patient costs during tuberculosis (TB) treatment in South Africa are high. There are fewer data about the costs incurred prior to starting treatment. We measured pre-TB treatment costs for people in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Design/methods- In the context of a TB case-contact study, we interviewed people starting TB treatment at primary healthcare facilities in rural South Africa. We estimated total direct and indirect costs incurred by respondents and their households in the three months prior to starting TB treatment. We estimated other coping costs, such as selling productive assets, as well as the value of any loans taken. Results- Among 98 participants (52 female, median age 36 years), 86/98 (88%) reported one or more symptoms from the WHO 4-symptom TB screening tool prior to starting treatment. The median total pre-treatment cost for TB affected households was USD 10.78 (IQR: [4.13 -- 20.23]). Total, pre-treatment costs for those with TB symptoms were USD 10.78 (IQR: [4.83 -- 20.23]) compared to USD 8.91 (IQR: [1.27 -- 22.19]) for those without TB symptoms. Conclusions- Whilst TB testing and care is free in South African public health facilities, patients still face costs that are burdensome. Our results indicate people affected by TB, including patients and their families, also face an economic burden. Our study highlights the need for further consideration of social protection policies to reduce the economic effects of asymptomatic TB.

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TRENDS-Thai: decadal trends of dengue, chikungunya, and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Thailand (2016-2025): a multi-disease time-series analysis of COVID-19 disruption

Pongpirul, W.; Ahmed, M. M.; Pongpirul, K.

2026-05-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353796 medRxiv
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Introduction: Dengue, chikungunya, and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) are priority notifiable infections in Thailand. Whether vector-borne and contact-mediated diseases responded differently to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has not been quantified within a unified national surveillance framework over an extended period. Methods: We conducted an ecological interrupted time-series analysis using weekly province-level notifiable disease surveillance data from epidemiological week 1 of 2016 to week 53 of 2025 across all 77 Thai provinces. Incidence per 100,000 population was calculated using year-specific civil registration population denominators. Segmented quasi-Poisson regression with two Fourier harmonics for annual seasonality was fitted, with the primary pandemic onset defined as week 1 of 2020 and two alternative onset definitions prespecified for sensitivity analysis. Results: The analysis included 40,579 province-week observations across 527 epidemiological weeks, comprising 790,263 dengue, 32,265 chikungunya, and 713,822 HFMD cases nationally. Immediate incidence rate ratios at pandemic onset were 0.39, 0.54, and 0.51 for dengue, chikungunya, and HFMD, respectively. Sustained post-onset trends diverged across diseases, with declining trajectories for the two vector-borne infections and a positive post-onset slope for hand, foot, and mouth disease. Dengue rebounded above pre-pandemic levels by 2023, chikungunya remained quiescent through 2025, and HFMD exceeded its pre-pandemic baseline by approximately 26%. Conclusion: Vector-borne and contact-mediated diseases in Thailand followed sharply contrasting decadal trajectories that tracked the transmission ecologies of each pathogen. These findings support transmission-mode-specific pandemic-resilient surveillance, accelerated arboviral and enteroviral vaccine deployment, and integrated vector management.

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The Burden and Genomic Characterization of Shigella-Associated Diarrhea in Children Under Five in Lusaka, Zambia: A Prospective Cohort Study

Chibuye, m. M.; Harris, V. C.; Brizuela, J.; Bosomprah, S.; Simuyandi, M.; Mwape, K.; Silwamba, S.; Liswaniso, F.; Chibesa, K.; Miti, S.; Piedade, G.; Luchen, C. C.; Chisenga, C. C.; Mende, D. R.; Schultsz, C.; Chilengi, R.

2026-05-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353268 medRxiv
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Background: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries and is increasingly resistant to first-line antibiotics. We conducted a surveillance study to determine the incidence, genomic characteristics, and AMR profiles of Shigella infections in children under five with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) in Lusaka, Zambia. Methods: Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2021, a prospective cohort study of 1,400 children under five was enrolled during a community census in a peri-urban setting and passively followed for 9.5 months for MSD. During enrollment, socio-demographic data were collected using electronic questionnaires, while clinical data were collected through the DHIS platform. The main outcome, Shigella in diarrheal stool in under 5 children, was detected using culture and Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) targeting the ipaH gene. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the incidence and risk factors of Shigella (ipaH) infections. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to characterize the genomic diversity and antimicrobial resistance genes, complemented by phenotypic antibiotic susceptibility testing. Results: There were 230 first episodes of Shigella over a follow-up time of 9,581.7 child-months, yielding an incidence of 24.0 (95% CI 21.1-27.3) cases per 1,000 child-months, with the highest incidence among 2 to 3-year-olds. The key risk factors identified were the water source (p=0.025) and age group (p=0.014). Genotypic characterization revealed 10 S. flexneri, 9 S. sonnei, and 3 S. boydii. The S. sonnei isolates formed two clusters, differing in virulence factors and plasmid profiles, indicating two possible circulating strains. Shigella isolates exhibited phenotypic and genotypic multidrug resistance, including against trimethoprim, aminoglycosides, and beta-lactams. Plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (qnrS1) was identified in four S. flexneri isolates, with these genes located on the IncFIB(K) plasmid, highlighting the potential for horizontal transmission and spread of quinolone resistance in this region. No phenotypic and genotypic resistance to macrolides, the first-line treatment for Shigella in Zambia, was observed. Interpretation: We report a high burden of Shigella with multidrug resistance, including resistance to fluoroquinolones. These findings highlight the increasing resistance of Shigella to first-line antibiotics and underscore the importance of developing safe and effective vaccines, improving WASH conditions, and ongoing AMR surveillance. Funding: The EDCTP2 program, supported by the European Union, the Faculty for the Future Foundation (FFTF), the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), and Health-Holland AMR-Global, Gloria, and Track-AMR.

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Performance of an evidence-based risk algorithm to diagnose chlamydia and gonorrhea among pregnant Rwandan women

Sharkey, T.; Nyombayire, J.; Parker, R.; Ingabire, R.; Umuhoza, C.; Bizimana, J.; Mukamuyango, J.; Unyuzimana, M. A.; Mazzei, A.; Tichacek, A.; Allen, S.; Karita, E.; Wall, K. M.

2026-05-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353484 medRxiv
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Reproductive tract infections (RTI) are associated with adverse outcomes in pregnant African women. However, many diagnostic strategies are unaffordable or perform poorly. Here, we assess RTI prevalence and predictors of chlamydia/gonorrhea (CT/NG) in pregnant women reporting vaginal discharge and the performance of our previously published CT/NG risk algorithm in this population versus Rwandan National Guidelines (RNG). From 2017-2020, free sexually transmitted infections (STI) services were provided to residents in Kigali, Rwanda. Medical history and gynecologic examination were done. Laboratory assessments included HIV; syphilis; microscopy for trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis (BV), and candida; and PCR for CT/NG. Eighty-seven pregnant women received STI services. Prevalence was 28% for CT/NG, 15% for trichomoniasis, 24% for BV, 39% for candida, and 79% for any RTI. Predictors of CT/NG were age <=25 (adjusted prevalence odds ratio [aPOR]=4.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-15.90; p=0.008), inconsistent condom use (aPOR=4.86; 95%CI: 0.98-24.10; p=0.053), absence of candida (aPOR=4.23; 95%CI: 1.13-15.82; p=0.032), and endocervical inflammation/discharge (aPOR=4.91; 95%CI: 1.40-17.20; p=0.013). Our algorithm outperformed the 2019 and 2024 RNG (sensitivity: 92% versus 46% and 35% respectively). Pregnant women seeking STI services had high RTI prevalence. Our algorithm performed well. Algorithms tailored for pregnant women and including male partner risk factors should be explored.

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Serological Markers Predict Plasmodium vivax Relapses in Returning Indonesian Soldier Cohorts

Noviyanti, R.; Setya Utami, R. A.; Smith, L.; Trianty, L.; Ekawati, L.; Sutanto, E.; Amalia, R.; Amelia, A. R.; Hafidzah, M. A.; Fadila, N.; Puspitasari, A. M.; Nisa, F. A.; Hidar, H.; Kariodimedjo, P.; Farinisia, A.; Hutahaean, G.; Christian, M.; Kesuma, T. A.; Subekti, D.; Soebianto, S.; Wulandari, F.; Nuraeni, N.; Budiman, W.; Ertanto, Y.; Widiarta, M. D.; Furkan, F.; Nekkab, N.; Mazhari, R.; White, M.; Robinson, L.; Longley, R.; Baird, J. K.; Mueller, I.

2026-06-10 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355218 medRxiv
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Summary Background Persistent transmission from relapsing Plasmodium vivax infections threatens malaria elimination programs in the Asia-Pacific and Americas. Tools to identify people at risk of relapse are urgently required. We aimed to validate a panel of eight P. vivax serological biomarkers for predicting future relapses. Methods In this observational study, soldiers returning from malaria-endemic Papua to non-endemic East Java, Indonesia, were screened at enrolment using antibody measurement (Luminex) and trained random forest classification algorithms, then followed for 6 months. Active case detection was performed fortnightly by microscopy. Algorithms classified soldiers as recently infected (last nine months) and thus at risk of relapse, based on anti-vivax antibody measurements at enrolment. Findings Between December 2018 and July 2022, 592 soldiers were enrolled, with 553 completing follow-up; 119 experienced a P. vivax relapse. Of these, 102 were correctly classified as at risk of relapse at enrolment, corresponding to 86% sensitivity and 86% specificity, with an AUC of 0.92. Interpretation P. vivax serological biomarkers can identify people at risk of relapse with high sensitivity and specificity and could be used as a novel public health intervention, P. vivax serological testing and treatment (PvSeroTAT), to reduce relapse-driven transmission.