Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

BackgroundDengue fever is a major neglected tropical disease with a rapidly rising global burden, and localized outbreaks are increasingly reported in southern subtropical China. Fujian Province, a coastal subtropical region with favorable ecological conditions for Aedes albopictus breeding and frequent cross-border exchanges with dengue-endemic areas, has had continuous local dengue cases for over a decade, raising concerns about the establishment of a stable natural endemic focus. Sustained local dengue transmission is defined by four core criteria, but no systematic assessment of these criteria has been conducted for Fujian using long-term multi-dimensional surveillance data. We aimed to evaluate whether a natural endemic focus for sustained local dengue transmission has been established in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2024 using four core evidence dimensions. MethodsWe extracted data on imported and locally acquired dengue cases in Fujian from 2014 to 2024 from Chinas National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). Serological surveillance for dengue IgG antibodies and virological surveillance for dengue virus in Aedes albopictus were conducted at seven sentinel sites. The study period was stratified into three phases based on the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmacological interventions: pre-pandemic (2014-2019), pandemic(2020-2022), and post-pandemic(2023-2024). Descriptive epidemiological analysis and data visualization were performed using R software (version 4.4.1), with t-tests for continuous variables and {chi}{superscript 2} tests for categorical variables. ResultsA total of 3,606 dengue cases were reported in Fujian during the study period, including 1,229 imported and 2,377 locally acquired cases. Key findings were as follows: (1) Temporal distribution: Local dengue transmission was completely interrupted during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic (0 local cases, only 26 imported cases), and resumed at a low level in 2023-2024 (160 local cases). (2) Serology: The overall population dengue IgG antibody positivity rate was 4.2% (66/15,736), with no statistically significant difference between pre-epidemic (3.8%, 30/7,835) and post-epidemic seasons (4.5%, 36/7,901; P=0.48), and no year with a positivity rate exceeding 10%. (3) Vector surveillance: Only one dengue virus-positive sample was detected among 385,000 Aedes albopictus mosquitoes collected during routine surveillance (Taijiang District, Fuzhou, October 2017), with no viral nucleic acid detected in all other samples. (4) Age distribution: The mean age of locally acquired cases (46.1{+/-}19.8 years) was significantly higher than that of imported cases (35.8{+/-}11.2 years, P<0.001), and local cases were concentrated in the middle-aged group (40-60 years) with no child-dominant pattern observed. ConclusionsFujian Province has not established a stable natural endemic focus for sustained local dengue transmission, and imported cases are the primary driver of local outbreaks in the region. Strengthened surveillance and early management of imported cases, integrated vector control targeting Aedes albopictus, and targeted public health education are critical and essential strategies to prevent the establishment of a dengue natural endemic focus in Fujian and other subtropical coastal regions with similar epidemiological characteristics. Author SummaryDengue fever is a rapidly spreading neglected tropical disease worldwide, and southern China faces persistent threats of local transmission due to favorable ecological conditions for mosquito breeding and frequent cross-border travel. Fujian Province, a subtropical coastal region in southeastern China, has reported annual local dengue cases for over a decade, raising public health concerns about the potential establishment of a stable natural endemic focus--where the virus circulates sustainably without relying on imported cases. To address this critical question, we conducted a comprehensive 11-year assessment (2014-2024) of dengue transmission in Fujian using four key evidence dimensions defined for identifying dengue endemic foci: the continuity of local cases independent of imported sources, population antibody levels, dengue virus detection in local mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus), and the age distribution of infected patients. We also leveraged the COVID-19 pandemic(2020-2022) as a unique natural experiment, during which strict travel restrictions drastically reduced imported dengue cases, to test whether local transmission could persist on its own. Our findings showed that local dengue transmission in Fujian completely stopped during the COVID-19 pandemic and only resumed when cross-border travel and imported cases recovered, confirming local transmission is entirely dependent on imported virus sources. Additionally, the local population had a very low dengue antibody positivity rate (4.2%), dengue virus was detected in only one mosquito sample over 11 years of surveillance, and local cases were concentrated in middle-aged adults (not children--the typical group affected in endemic areas). Together, these results confirm that Fujian Province has not established a stable natural endemic focus for dengue fever. While no endemic focus exists yet, Fujian remains at high risk of imported-driven local outbreaks due to its climate and cross-border exchanges. Our study highlights three critical strategies to prevent the future establishment of a dengue endemic focus in Fujian and other similar subtropical coastal regions: strengthening surveillance and early response for imported dengue cases, implementing targeted mosquito control measures during peak transmission seasons, and conducting public health education to raise awareness of dengue prevention. These evidence-based interventions are key to blocking the formation of sustained local dengue transmission and protecting regional population health.

The risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in Barretts esophagus (BE) varies substantially by segment length and dysplasia grade. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness and health impacts of dysplasia-stratified EAC surveillance strategies for the Japanese BE population. A state-transition model was developed comparing endoscopy, sponge test, breath test, and miRNA test with no surveillance from a healthcare payer perspective over a lifetime. Non-invasive strategies were assessed as primary surveillance tools, with positive results triggering confirmatory endoscopy, and a scenario analysis evaluated AI-assisted endoscopy. Five BE populations of 50-year-old individuals were modeled: ultra-short segment BE (USSBE), short-segment BE (SSBE), long-segment nondysplastic BE (LSBE-NDBE), LSBE with low-grade dysplasia (LSBE-LGD), and LSBE with high-grade dysplasia (LSBE-HGD). Each modality was evaluated at surveillance intervals of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 10 years. Primary outcomes included net monetary benefits, costs, quality-adjusted life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and EAC deaths, with sensitivity analyses assessing parameter uncertainty. Surveillance was not cost-effective for USSBE, SSBE, or LSBE-NDBE. For LSBE-LGD, annual endoscopy was most cost-effective, averting 83 EAC deaths per 10,000 individuals, while for LSBE-HGD, annual breath testing was most cost-effective, averting 295 deaths. These findings support dysplasia-specific surveillance in LSBE with implications for global surveillance practice.

BackgroundBoth hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and scrub typhus (ST) are acute zoonotic infectious diseases. There is an overlap in their epidemiological characteristics and clinical manifestations, posing challenges for early differential diagnosis. This study aims to identify predictive factors for these two diseases to provide a basis for early diagnosis. Method/FindingsA retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients diagnosed with HFRS and ST at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dali University. Logistic regression analysis was employed to explore independent risk factors for the early differential diagnosis of these two diseases, and a nomogram model was constructed based on these risk factors. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The nomogram was utilized to visually present the predictive variables. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical utility of the model. ResultsA total of 235 patients each with HFRS and ST were included in this study. After adjusting for confounding factors, the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that sex (male) (adjusted odds ratio [ajOR]: 2.093, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.107 - 3.957, P = 0.018), positive proteinuria (ajOR: 4.937, 95% CI: 2.427 - 10.042, P < 0.001), creatinine (CREA) (ajOR: 1.009, 95% CI: 1.003 - 1.015, P = 0.005), heart rate (ajOR: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.966 - 0.997, P = 0.018), and conjunctival congestion (ajOR: 16.167, 95% CI: 5.326 - 49.072, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for differentiating HFRS from ST. The AUC of the model constructed based on these five independent risk factors was 0.856. ConclusionSex (male), positive proteinuria, elevated CREA, decreased heart rate, and conjunctival congestion are effective predictive factors.

In the past decade, dengue fever has emerged as a major public health on Reunion Island in the Southwest Indian Ocean. During the 2018-2022 outbreak, an unusual increase in ocular complications was reported in some patients. To investigate a potential viral cause, we analysed 447 blood samples from hospitalized patients with and without ophthalmic symptoms. Genetic sequencing revealed the co-circulation of two strains of dengue virus serotype 1, both genetically linked to strains previously identified in Asia. Notably, all patients with ophthalmic symptoms were infected with viruses from a single cluster within genotype I, which harbored several unique mutations. These findings suggest that the rare ocular complications observed during this outbreak may be associated with specific viral cluster. Further laboratory studies are required to confirm this potential link.

Background The Hump-nosed pit viper is a recognized but neglected medically significant species causing morbidity and mortality, with non-availability of a specific antivenom. There are many gaps in our understanding of its envenomation, including burden, clinical syndrome, complications and management. Methodology The study is a retrospective sub analysis of the Prospective VENOMS registry and hospital records of Hump Nosed Pit Viper envenomation from a single tertiary care center in coastal Karnataka from May 2018 to March 2024. Epidemiology, syndrome, complications and treatment strategies have been described. A linear mixed model analysis was conducted to study the effect of different therapeutic interventions in combating venom induced consumptive coagulopathy (VICC) Principal Findings Of 46 cases, 24 patients had VICC. The most common complications were AKI (21.7%), TMA (10.9%) and stroke (4.4%). Anaphylaxis to ASV (23.9%) was the most common therapeutic complication. Therapeutic interventions included ASV, administration of blood products and therapeutic plasma exchange along with supportive care. The linear mixed model revealed that administration of blood products (p=<0.001) had the strongest influence on the INR value, however, often resulting in a transient decline in INR value. ASV (p=0.052) caused only marginally significant change in INR. The role of TPE could not be statistically inferred, however, individual cases with severe VICC improved without complications, therefore it required further study but can be considered in critical cases. Conclusions/Significance This study describes the syndrome of hump-nosed pit viper envenomation, while highlighting the urgent need for a species-specific antivenom, recommends treatment strategies that can be used in the interim. Additionally, geo-spatial mapping draws attention to hotspots and the hypothesis that HNPV in coastal Karnataka have regionally distinct toxicity trends.

BackgroundThe epidemiology of suspected pediatric meningoencephalitis has shifted in the era of conjugate vaccines and multiplex PCR diagnostics, with viral pathogens now predominating over bacterial causes. Updated epidemiologic data are essential to adapt diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms to current clinical practice. MethodsThis retrospective single-center study included children and adolescents <18 years who underwent lumbar puncture with cerebrospinal fluid multiplex PCR for suspected central nervous system infection at a tertiary-care pediatric hospital in Germany between 2016 and 2024. Clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records. Cerebrospinal fluid was analyzed using the BioFire(R) FilmArray(R) Meningitis/Encephalitis Panel. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics, nonparametric group comparisons, receiver operating characteristic analyses. ResultsAmong 1,198 included children, definite bacterial meningitis was diagnosed in 13 (1.1%), definite viral meningitis in 80 (6.7%), aseptic meningitis of unknown etiology in 131 (11.0%), confirmed/probable encephalitis in 53 (4.4%), and possible encephalitis in 34 (2.8%). Bacterial meningitis accounted for 5.8% of all meningitis cases. A causative pathogen was identified in all bacterial meningitis cases, most commonly Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 7). Enterovirus (n = 52) and parechovirus (n = 9) predominated in viral meningitis, whereas an infectious etiology was identified in only 13 of 53 confirmed/probable encephalitis cases. The Bacterial Meningitis Score showed a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 57.6%. The recently published UK-ChiMES-pre- and post-lumbar puncture scores demonstrated sensitivities of 84.6% and 76.9% and specificities of 86.3% and 92.7%, respectively. DiscussionBacterial meningitis was rare in this contemporary cohort, while viral and etiologically unresolved infections predominated despite routine multiplex PCR diagnostics. Clinical prediction scores supported risk stratification, with the UK-ChiMES-pre-lumbar puncture score showing the most favorable balance between sensitivity and specificity and potential to guide diagnostic decisions and antiinfective therapy.

BackgroundThe United Nations General Assembly High-level Meeting on Antimicrobial Resistance (UNGA HLM-AMR) committed to a target that 70% of global human antibiotic use (ABU) should be from the Access group of the WHO AWaRe system. MethodsWe used 2019 IQVIA MIDAS(R) global ABU Quarterly value sales, volumes (kg/SU) and average ex-manufacturer prices to evaluate price per daily defined dose (DDD) by AWaRe group across countries. IQVIA MIDAS volumes/value data reflect public, private, or mixed sectors. We estimated potential national pharmaceutical expenditure savings if i) the UNGA 70% Access target was met, and ii) national ABU aligned with the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML). We evaluated 7-day treatment prices for common oral and parenteral antibiotics across AWaRe groups. We measured affordability in middle-income countries (MICs) by income group, as the percentage of the population at risk of falling below national poverty lines if paying out-of-pocket, using income distributions and generalised beta distributions of the second kind. Prices were reported in 2019 international dollars (I$). ResultsVolume-weighted ex-manufacturer prices per DDD were lower for Access (I$1{middle dot}2, IQR I$0{middle dot}7) than Watch (I$2{middle dot}6, IQR I$2{middle dot}1) and highest (I$83{middle dot}8, IQR I$80{middle dot}9) for Reserve antibiotics. Lower prices were seen in high-income countries for Access antibiotics. Meeting the 70% Access target could save countries I$0{middle dot}1 million-I$4{middle dot}9 billion annually. Global savings could reach I$10{middle dot}4 billion if only WHO EML-listed antibiotics were used. Seven-day parenteral meropenem could put 7% (IQR 9%) of the population in MICs at risk of impoverishment. ConclusionAntibiotic policies focused on achieving the UNGA-AMR 70% Access target could generate significant potential national and global expenditure savings. FundingThis work was supported by the Wellcome Trust (304681/Z/23/Z) as part of the Antibiotic Data to Inform Local Action (ADILA) project and the Global Antibiotic Policy initiative (GAPi) project (RES 2024-495).

IntroductionHemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a serious condition induced by Dengue virus which becomes fatal if not detected early and treated appropriately. So objectives of the present study are to observe the different patterns of presentations, clinical features and outcome of HLH induced by Dengue. MethodsIn this observational study, 14 patients admitted and diagnosed HLH as per diagnostic criteria, were included after informed written consent. Study conducted in a period of six months from 01/07/2025 to 31/12/2025. All patients were followed up till discharge. After collection, all data were analyzed by Microsoft Excel 2010. Ethical clearance was taken from Ethical Review Board of the Medical College. ResultsAmong 14 cases, male were more affected then the female (78.6% VS 21.4%) and majority were in between 20 to 50 years age groups. Clinical data showed, all 14 cases had fever for >7 days, joint pain 3(21.4%), headache 11(78.6%), skin rashes 10(71.4%), retro-orbital pain 2(14.3%), vomiting 11(78.6%),bleeding 10(71.4%), cough 4(28.6%), loose motion 9(64.3%), abdominal pain 7(50.0%), anorexia 2(14.3%), Melaena 2(14.3%), jaundice 4(28.6%) and spleenomegaly 9(64.3%). One(7.1%) case had history of Hypertension. Laboratory data showed different level of Bi or Pancytopenia, high ferritin, high TG, low fibrinogen, raised liver enzymes and low sodium. Dengue RT PCR and serology results showed 8(42.9%) cases were both IG M and Ig G dengue antibody positive, 6 cases were RT PCR positive, 2 cases were IgM and another 4 cases were IgG positive. Outcome of patients revealed, among all 14 cases12(85.8%) patients improved uneventfully and 2 were shifted to ICU where one improved and one died. ConclusionDengue is prevailing for long time and different complications are evolving and HLH is a relatively newer incident among the dengue patients. Infection by different serotypes at different time or multiple dengue serotype infection may be related with HLH and it might be a future subject to explore and to evaluate.

The measles outbreak in Jalisco, Mexico (January-February 2026) experienced vigorous sustained transmission with an exponential growth rate = 0.10 (95% CI: 0.10-0.11) per day, doubling time = 6.3 days (95% CI: 6.3-6.9), yielding the effective reproduction number at 3.34 (95% CI: 3.16-3.54), with elevated incidence among infants and young adults.

IntroductionDengue has been prevalent in a regular fashion in Bangladesh and Chattogram for the last 6-7 years and is showing some serotype twisting. So, the objectives of the present study were to explore the burden of dengue serotypes in Chattogram. MethodsIn this study, 223 Dengue RT-PCR positive patients were evaluated for serotyping. Gender and age group, along with cycle threshold (CT) values, were also collected. Data after collection were compiled, analyzed, and plotted in Microsoft Excel and GraphPad Prism 10.4. Ethical clearance was taken to conduct the study. ResultsAmong 223 patients analyzed, males and females were found near equal (113 and 110). Middle-aged patients were more than the extremes of age. The mean {+/-} SD of age was 33.55 {+/-} 13.67 years. Regarding serotype distributions, isolated Den 1, Den 2 and Den 3 were found 1.3%, 73.1% and 6.7%, respectively. Concurrent infections with multiple serotypes were observed in several patients, most notably the Den 2 and Den 3 combination, which accounted for 14.3% (n=32) of the cases. Other co-infections were less frequent: the Den 1 and Den 2 pairing appeared in 3.6% (n=8) of the cohort, while triple-serotype infections (Den 1, 2, and 3) and Den 3/Den 4 pairings were rare, each occurring in only 0.4% of patients. Statistical analysis of CT values revealed no significant sex-based differences for Den 2 and Den 3. However, significant variations in CT values were observed when comparing Den 1 against both Den 2 and Den 3 (p < 0.05). In contrast, the difference between Den 2 and Den 3 Ct values remained statistically insignificant. ConclusionIn the year 2025, Dengue serotypes 2 and 3 were found to be the most prevalent, both in isolated or in combinations and Den 1 and Den 4 were found minimum. Exposure to multiple serotypes and twisting from one serotype to another might influence the dengue outcome in future, which needs further exploration.

ObjectiveCongenital syphilis remains a preventable cause of fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, despite the availability of inexpensive diagnostics and effective treatment. We aimed to evaluate the maternal and congenital syphilis burden at the Instituto Nacional Materno Perinatal, Perus national referral center for maternal and perinatal care. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of aggregated, de-identified surveillance data from January 2023 to December 2025. Maternal prevalence and congenital syphilis incidence were calculated and compared with World Health Organization (WHO) elimination benchmarks. FindingsAmong 59,568 pregnant women screened, maternal syphilis prevalence ranged between 1{middle dot}0% and 1{middle dot}2% of all women screened. Across 36,094 live births, congenital syphilis incidence ranged between 191 and 259 per 100,000 live births, consistently exceeding the WHO target of 50 per 100,000 live births. More than half of maternal infections were diagnosed at outside facilities before referral. Reported treatment coverage exceeded 90% among mothers and 100% among infants in all years. ConclusionThe prevalence of congenital syphilis exceeded WHO elimination benchmarks despite stable maternal prevalence, highlighting gaps in timely diagnosis and linkage between diagnosis and treatment.

BackgroundMeasles is a highly contagious infectious disease and a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In developing country like Ethiopia, effective immunization is a proven strategy for reducing measles related illness and deaths. However, measles second dose vaccination drop out has become a major public health concern. In a densely populated city such as Addis Ababa drop rate tends to be higher than the minimum acceptable threshold, leading to increased number of cases and recurrent outbreaks. Despite of this limited evidence exists on the determinants of second dose drop out and the problem is not well investigated, as a result this study will try to identify determinants of measles second dose vaccination dropout among children 24 - 35 months of age. ObjectivesTo identify determinants of measles second dose vaccination dropout among children 24 - 35 months of age Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 2025. MethodCommunity based unmatched case control study was conducted in Addis Ababa from September 1/2024 to October /2025 with a total of 636 participants, consisting of 212 cases and 424 controls. Data were collected using structured Quesionariie and entered into EpiData 3.1 then StataSE 18 was used for detailed analysis including Descriptive statistics. Model fitness was checked using Hosmer-Lemeshow and multicollinearity were assessed using variance inflation factor. Furthermore, Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses was employed and Adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals was used to identify significant variables. ResultsA total of 620 mothers/caregivers participants respond to the study, comprising 206 (97%) cases and 414(97.6%) controls, yielding a total response rate of 97.4%. In this study, waiting time longer than 30 minutes (AOR= 3.34, 95%CI: 1.86-5.9), Lack of counseling (AOR = 2.63, 95% CI: 1.60-4.30), Lack of reminders (AOR = 2.86, 95% CI: 1.89-4.30), Previous adverse event following immunization (AOR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.39-3.00), postnatal care visit (AOR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.40-0.85) and family size of greater than 3 (AOR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29-2.98) were significantly associated with measles second dose dropout. Conclusion and recommendationIn study shows measles second dose dropout is found to be associated with long waiting time, lack of counseling, lack of reminder, history of adverse event following immunization and postnatal visit. Which suggests Strengthening Immunization Counseling, reducing waiting time, establishing effective reminding system, integrating Immunization with postnatal services and promptly addressing concerns about adverse event following immunization can help reduce measles second dose dropout.

We evaluated the probability of need for public health action against trachoma in Esmeraldas province, Ecuador. Compared to global references, seroconversion rates to Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 in children suggest high probability of action needed in rural villages (91%) and lower in more urban areas (32%), motivating further trachoma assessment.

BackgroundCervical cancer, generally induced by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection remains one of the most prevalent and deadly female cancers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In Cameroon, the impact of prevention strategies is limited by systemic challenges, and insufficient evidence base to guide effective interventions. This study aimed to synthesize available evidence on the prevalence and key determinants of HPV infection among Cameroonian women. MethodsA comprehensive search was conducted across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane electronic databases and local online publishers. Quality assessment of included studies was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool. The random effect model was used to pooled the estimates. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistics. Statistical significance was set at p <0.05 and all analyses were conducted using R Statistics version 4.5.2. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD420261279093). ResultsThirty-six studies (20,033 participants) were included. The pooled prevalence of HPV infection 36.10 (95% CI: 27.28-45.97) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 98.4%). Higher estimates were observed among female sex workers 62.10% (95% CI: 58.08-66.00%, 1 study, n = 599) and women with pre-cancerous genital lesions 85.53% (95% CI: 61.72-95.59%, 4 studies, n = 673). Significant determinants of HPV infection included age below 40 (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.14-1.49; 7 reports), unmarried status (OR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.24-1.64; 15 reports), having five or more sexual partners (OR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.05-1.51; 2 reports), parity below four (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.09-1.52; 2 reports), HIV infection (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.24-2.98; 6 reports), CD4 count below 500 cells/mm3 (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.02-3.95; 2 reports), and viral load below 1000 copies/mL (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.27-3.53; 2 reports). ConclusionsOur study demonstrates a high and persistent burden of HPV infection in Cameroon, with a greater impact on younger women and women living with HIV. These findings highlight an urgent public health need to strengthen and expand prevention strategies to effectively reduce and eliminate cervical cancer incidence in the country.

BackgroundHigh-dose inactivated influenza vaccination (HD-IIV) demonstrates superior effectiveness versus standard-dose vaccination (SD-IIV) in adults aged [&ge;]60 years. A recent meta-analysis integrated complementary evidence sources of representing over 85 million individuals across 14 influenza seasons. MethodsA previously developed model was updated using life-time horizon and societal perspective. Updated parameters included demographics, costs, hospitalization rates, and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE): RCT evidence (24% for ILI, 7% for cardiorespiratory hospitalizations) and RCT + real-world evidence (RWE) (15% for ILI, 8% for cardiorespiratory hospitalizations). ResultsHD-IIV resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of {euro}7,300/QALY (RCT evidence) and {euro}5,800/QALY (RCT+RWE evidence). Implementation would prevent 7,200 general practitioner visits, 6,300 cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, and 269 deaths, by using RCT evidence. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated >99% probability of cost-effectiveness at {euro}20,000/QALY threshold for both RCT and RCT+RWE evidence. ConclusionsHD-IIV remains highly cost-effective for Dutch adults aged [&ge;]60 years under updated evidence scenarios, supporting implementation in the national immunization programme. HighlightsO_LIThe economic analysis of high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine was updated. C_LIO_LIRelative vaccine effectiveness of HD-IIV incorporating recent evidence was used. C_LIO_LIHD-IIV remains cost-effective in Dutch adults aged [&ge;]60. C_LI

COVID-19 remains a substantial public health challenge in the Netherlands. Next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1283, is approved in the European Union, with potential for higher relative vaccine efficacy compared with originally-licensed COVID-19 vaccines. Its potential public health and economic impact, in adults [&ge;]60 years and high-risk 18-59 years, was modelled versus no vaccination and originally-licensed mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, adapting a published static Markov model with 1-year time horizon. COVID-19 burden reflected two full post-pandemic seasons. Vaccine efficacy versus mRNA-1273 was based on pivotal phase 3 NextCOVE trial data; efficacy versus BNT162b2 was derived from an indirect treatment comparison. The economically justifiable price (EJP) of mRNA-1283 versus no vaccination, and price premiums over existing vaccines, were determined at a willingness-to-pay threshold of {euro}50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Without COVID-19 vaccination, an estimated 460,000 infections, 23,800 hospitalizations and 5,300 deaths would occur. With current coverage, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent 68,000 infections, 5,400 hospitalizations, and 1,200 deaths, saving 9,667 QALYs and over {euro}66.5 million in treatment costs. The EJP was {euro}238 versus no vaccination. Compared with mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent additional burden (e.g., 1,309 and 1,679 hospitalizations, respectively), and was cost-effective at an incremental EJP of {euro}62 versus mRNA-1273, and {euro}80 versus BNT162b2. The results support continued COVID-19 vaccination to mitigate the ongoing health and societal burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands. The comparative analyses indicate that mRNA-1283 may be associated with substantial health benefits over originally-licensed mRNA vaccines; consequently, its use may further improve health outcomes and economic efficiency within COVID-19 vaccination programs.

The rapid diagnosis of Campylobacter infections is important for the management of infectious gastroenteritis. Although stool culture is considered the gold standard, its sensitivity is limited and it requires prolonged incubation times. We performed a prospective multicenter study at nine healthcare facilities in Japan to evaluate a Campylobacter rapid antigen test using stool specimens between March 2024 and August 2025. Patients with suspected infectious gastroenteritis were consecutively enrolled and tested using QuickNavi-Campylobacter and compared with the FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel as the reference method. Discordant results were further evaluated by culturing and additional PCR assays. In total, 410 patients were included in the final analysis. The positive, negative, and total concordance rates between QuickNavi-Campylobacter and FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel were 79%, 99%, and 93%, respectively. The positive concordance rate decreased in specimens collected [&ge;] 6 days after the onset of symptoms (50%). QuickNavi-Campylobacter demonstrated relatively good concordance with the FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel in a real-world multicenter setting. These results suggest that this rapid antigen test may be particularly useful for the early diagnosis of suspected campylobacteriosis.

BackgroundTyphoid fever incidence estimates are central to policy decisions on vaccine introduction and investments in non-vaccine prevention and control but are often unavailable. We explored whether prevalence metrics from sentinel studies of community-onset bloodstream infections could accurately predict local Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) incidence. MethodsUsing a previous systematic review (January 2018-December 2024), we identified studies reporting both typhoid incidence and prevalence of community-onset bloodstream infections from sentinel sites. From authors, we requested data on blood culture isolates and analysed four metrics: (i) S. Typhi prevalence among probable pathogens, (ii) S. Typhi rank order, (iii) S. Typhi to Escherichia coli ratio, and (iv) S. Typhi to stably endemic organisms ratio. Typhoid incidence was categorized as low (<10), medium (10-100) or high (>100) per 100,000 person-years. We used univariate ordinal regression to assess the association between each metric and typhoid incidence level. The model performance was evaluated by the c-statistic, sensitivity, and specificity. FindingsAnalysis of 29 study sites (20 Africa, 9 Asia) yielded 4,625 probable pathogens. The median (IQR) typhoid incidence was 140 (28-319) per 100,000 person-years. All metrics were associated with increased typhoid incidence level: for each 1% increase in S. Typhi prevalence OR 1.07 (95%CI 1.02-1.15); rank order OR 0.25 (95%CI 0.06-0.64); log S. Typhi to E. coli ratio OR 2.91 (95%CI 1.45-7.42); log S. Typhi to stably endemic organisms ratio OR 3.69 (95%CI 1.69-11.3). A parsimonious model using S. Typhi prevalence alone achieved c-statistics of 0.87 (0.58-0.97), 0.76 (0.51-0.91), and 0.88 (0.69-0.96) for low, medium, and high incidence, respectively. InterpretationSentinel prevalence metrics from bloodstream infections, particularly S. Typhi prevalence among probable pathogens, could be useful for inferring local typhoid fever incidence where direct data are unavailable. FundingGates foundation Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSGlobally, annual deaths from typhoid fever were estimated at 71,954 (95% uncertainty interval 38,051 to 118,560) in 2023. Typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) are recommended for regions with high typhoid incidence. Implementation, however, can be challenging due to a lack of local incidence data. Generating community incidence estimates requires expensive and time-consuming large prospective or hybrid surveillance studies, or novel techniques such as serology or environmental surveillance. Our previous study proposed that metrics from sentinel healthcare facilities such as the prevalence of Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) among all bloodstream pathogens or its rank order relative to other pathogens could serve as proxy for community incidence. However, contemporaneous incidence and prevalence data from the same time and location were limited in our previous study. To explore typhoid incidence estimation strategies, we searched PubMed and MEDLINE on January 8, 2026 with search terms including keywords of "typhoid fever", "incidence", and "prediction" without restrictions to language or publication date. Previous studies estimated incidence based on complex country-level covariates and disease modelling that lack ease of applicability for policy decisions. Recognising the need for pragmatic tools, we explored whether prevalence metrics from sentinel studies of community-onset bloodstream infections could accurately predict local S. Typhi incidence. Added value of this studyOur study was based on typhoid incidence studies that had available data for isolates of bloodstream infections. Of 29 sites across Africa and Asia with 4,625 probable pathogens, we found that all four sentinel metrics were significantly associated with typhoid incidence level. We demonstrated that a parsimonious model using S. Typhi prevalence alone achieved good discriminative performance in identifying high incidence settings. Implications of all the available evidenceWhen typhoid incidence estimates are unavailable, prevalence metrics from sentinel studies of community-onset bloodstream infections could help policymakers infer typhoid incidence and optimise resource allocation in water, sanitation, and hygiene, and TCV introduction.

Incidence of norovirus has strong seasonality in temperate and continental climates. Many studies have examined its association with climate variables, but evidence remains disparate. We address this gap by performing a systematic review to summarise and interpret the strength and directionality of associations between climate variables and norovirus incidence. Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed databases were screened for peer-reviewed studies on 2nd of December 2024. Articles were included if they described any climate or meteorological variable, in a categorical or numerical format, relative to a measurement of norovirus incidence risk in a human population, or prevalence or survivability outside the human host. Bias was assessed using a modified Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist. If dispersion of the effect in a human population was provided, the mean size was calculated using inverse variance weighting. The effect size outside the host was summarised as D-values, representing the time required to achieve a 90% reduction in the detected amount of virus. A total 139 studies were included. Predictors of risk were ambient and water temperature, relative and absolute humidity, anomalies of ambient temperature and precipitation, atmospheric and vapour pressure. High heterogeneity in direction and size of effects was observed due to regional differences in the factors driving norovirus seasonality and differences in outcome and exposure definitions. Our review suggests that the sensitivity of norovirus to individual climate variables is region and time specific, reflecting geographical differences in the relative importance of norovirus transmission via environmental pathways versus human-to-human contact. Plain Language SummaryNorovirus, a gastrointestinal virus, has a higher number of cases during specific months of the year. Regions with similar types of climate appear to have similar time periods when the increase in the number of infections occurs, which has been linked to norovirus case numbers being correlated to individual climate variables, such as temperature or rainfall. To understand how these associations compare globally and what are their potential explanations, we screened four major scientific databases, namely Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed. After the selection process, a total 139 peer-reviewed studies were included in this study. We found that ambient and water temperature, relative and absolute humidity, anomalies of ambient temperature and precipitation, atmospheric and vapour pressure were predictors of an increase in norovirus cases. However, the strength and direction of the relationships differed from region to region. A potential explanation is that geographies also differ in how important individual routes are for the transmission of norovirus, specifically via the environment as opposed to direct human-to-human contact, whereas climate is likely to have a greater influence on the former. Key pointsO_LIThe strength and direction of associations between climate variables and norovirus incidence varies by region and time period C_LIO_LIThe strength of associations vary across the transmission routes of norovirus, e.g., environmental versus human-to-human contact C_LIO_LIClimate variables impact norovirus survival and dissemination outside the host, which may inform models of environmental virus transmission C_LI

ObjectivesDespite the availability of effective vaccines, achieving the seroprevalence thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for eliminating measles, rubella, and mumps remains a public health challenge. MethodsA retrospective, cross-sectional serological survey was conducted, including 9,587 serum samples collected from 31 of the 32 federal entities of Mexico between September and December 2024. IgG antibody levels against measles, rubella, and mumps were quantified using chemiluminescent immunoassays. Seroprevalence was analyzed by age, sex, and geographic region. ResultsThe overall seroprevalence was 78.3% for measles, 88.6% for rubella, and 81.5% for mumps (p<0.05). Age-stratified analysis revealed significant gaps in immunity against measles and mumps, particularly in the 10-39-year-old group, in which seroprevalence dropped below 70%. In contrast, more consistent protection against rubella was observed across all age groups, although younger children showed lower antibody titers. Regional analysis indicated that only older adults reached the protective threshold against measles in all states. ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that current levels of seroprevalence in Mexico do not correspond to the vaccination coverage recommended by the WHO and highlights the urgent need to strengthen vaccination strategies, conduct catch-up campaigns, and carry out continuous seroepidemiological surveillance to maintain elimination goals.